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RAP opportunity at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration     NOAA

Multi-resolution ensemble design for Warn-on-Forecast


National Severe Storms Laboratory

opportunity location
26.76.00.C0730 Norman, OK 73072


name email phone
Corey Keith Potvin 405.206.0485


A growing priority for the experimental NSSL Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) is the exploration of ensemble design strategies that will enable ~1-km data assimilation and/or forecast grids to be used in real-time. Downscaling 3-km analyses to ~1-km grids for the free forecast integration has shown some benefits (Lawson et al. 2020; Miller et al. 2022), but retaining 3-km grid spacing for the data assimilation is a potentially major limitation. Unfortunately, ~1-km ensemble data assimilation is currently prohibitively expensive. Multi-resolution data assimilation, where both high- and low-resolution members are used during cycling, offer a potential solution. Once a fully ~1-km WoFS becomes computationally feasible, multi-resolution data assimilation may enable still higher-resolution (e.g., 500-m grid spacing) analyses and forecasts.

Research proposals are invited on all aspects of multi-resolution data assimilation. Several years of warm season forecasts from the WoFS will be made available to the successful applicant.

Miller, W., C. K. Potvin, M. L. Flora, B. Gallo, L. Wicker, T. Jones, P. Skinner, B. Matilla, and K. Knopfmeier, 2022: Exploring the usefulness of downscaling free forecasts from the Warn-on-Forecast System. Wea. Forecasting, 37, 181-203.

Lawson, J. R., C. K. Potvin, P. S. Skinner, and A. E. Reinhart, 2021: The vice and virtue of increased horizontal resolution in ensemble forecasts of tornadic thunderstorms in low-CAPE, high-shear environments. Mon. Wea. Rev., 149, 921-944.

key words
ensembles; prediction; data assimilation; thunderstorms; severe weather


Citizenship:  Open to U.S. citizens, permanent residents and non-U.S. citizens
Level:  Open to Postdoctoral and Senior applicants


Base Stipend Travel Allotment Supplementation
$60,000.00 $3,000.00

$24,000 Supplement for Doctorates in Electrical Engineering

Experience Supplement:
Postdoctoral and Senior Associates will receive an appropriately higher stipend based on the number of years of experience past their PhD.

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