Proper evaluation of very short-range, storm-scale ensemble forecasts requires techniques that are tailored to individual storms. Storm-based verification techniques improve not only the evaluation of Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) systems (Flora et al. 2019; Potvin et al. 2020), but also assessments of thunderstorm predictability, for which traditional verification methods can produce misleading results (Flora et al. 2018).
Research proposals are invited on all aspects of storm-scale verification and predictability metrics. Several years of warm season forecasts from the experimental NSSL WoF System will be made available to the successful applicant.
Flora, M. L., C. K. Potvin, and L. J. Wicker, 2018: Practical Predictability of Supercells: Exploring Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Initial Condition Spread. Mon. Wea. Rev., 146, 2361–2379, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0374.1.
Flora, M. L., P. S. Skinner, C. K. Potvin, A. E. Reinhart, T. A. Jones, N. Yussouf, and K. H. Knopfmeier, 2019: Object-Based Verification of Short-Term, Storm-Scale Probabilistic Mesocyclone Guidance from an Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System. Wea. Forecasting, 34, 1721–1739, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0094.1.
Potvin, C. K., and Coauthors, 2020: Assessing Systematic Impacts of PBL Schemes on Storm Evolution in the NOAA Warn-on-Forecast System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 148, 2567–2590, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0389.1.
Additional Benefits
Relocation
Awardees who reside more than 50 miles from their host laboratory and remain on tenure for at least six months are eligible for paid relocation to within the vicinity of their host laboratory.
Health insurance
A group health insurance program is available to awardees and their qualifying dependents in the United States.