The goal of the project is to develop short-term forecast models of Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) habitat distribution based on in situ observations of ocean conditions. The habitat models will be parameterized and validated using survey data for Pacific hake off the US west coast. The models will be forced with seasonal lead-time forecasts of oceanographic variables produced by J-SCOPE (www.nanoos.org/products/jscope/) to provide weekly to monthly forecasts of hake distribution. The project outcomes will focus on providing methodology that can be used to improve acoustic survey design, stock assessments, and management planning. This is a collaborative project with investigators from NOAA NWFSC, University of Washington, and PMEL/JISAO, which will require working closely with investigators at facilities in Newport, Oregon and Seattle, Washington.
References
Kaplan IC, et al: Cloudy with a chance of sardines: forecasting sardine distributions using regional climate models. Fisheries Oceanography 25: 15-27, 2016
Siedlecki SA, et al: Experiments with Seasonal Forecasts of ocean conditions for the Northern region of the California Current upwelling system, Nature: Scientific Reports 6, 2016. doi:10.1038/srep27203
Habitat models; Forecasting; Climate variability; California Current; Stock assessments; Statistics;
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