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RAP opportunity at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration     NOAA

Novel Verification Techniques for Warn-on-Forecast Ensembles


National Severe Storms Laboratory

opportunity location
26.76.00.C0481 Norman, OK 73072


name email phone
Corey Keith Potvin 405.206.0485


Proper evaluation of very short-range, storm-scale ensemble forecasts requires techniques that are tailored to individual storms. Storm-based verification techniques improve not only the evaluation of Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) systems (Flora et al. 2019; Potvin et al. 2020), but also assessments of thunderstorm predictability, for which traditional verification methods can produce misleading results (Flora et al. 2018).

Research proposals are invited on all aspects of storm-scale verification and predictability metrics. Several years of warm season forecasts from the experimental NSSL WoF System will be made available to the successful applicant.

Flora, M. L., C. K. Potvin, and L. J. Wicker, 2018: Practical Predictability of Supercells: Exploring Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Initial Condition Spread. Mon. Wea. Rev.146, 2361–2379,

Flora, M. L., P. S. Skinner, C. K. Potvin, A. E. Reinhart, T. A. Jones, N. Yussouf, and K. H. Knopfmeier, 2019: Object-Based Verification of Short-Term, Storm-Scale Probabilistic Mesocyclone Guidance from an Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System. Wea. Forecasting34, 1721–1739,

Potvin, C. K., and Coauthors, 2020: Assessing Systematic Impacts of PBL Schemes on Storm Evolution in the NOAA Warn-on-Forecast System. Mon. Wea. Rev.148, 2567–2590,

key words
NWP; ensembles; CAMs; post-processing; verification; severe weather


Citizenship:  Open to U.S. citizens, permanent residents and non-U.S. citizens
Level:  Open to Postdoctoral and Senior applicants


Base Stipend Travel Allotment Supplementation
$60,000.00 $3,000.00

$24,000 Supplement for Doctorates in Electrical Engineering

Experience Supplement:
Postdoctoral and Senior Associates will receive an appropriately higher stipend based on the number of years of experience past their PhD.

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